Côte d’Ivoire vs. Mali: How Forecasts Place Ivorian Gold Ahead by 2028
According to a forecast plan from the Ministry of Mines released on Friday, July 24, Mali expects an industrial gold production of 43.2 tonnes for 2026, as reported by Reuters. While this volume marks a slight recovery compared to the 42.2 tonnes recorded in 2025, medium-term prospects reveal contrasting trajectories with Côte d’Ivoire, whose gold production is set to continue its rapid rise.
Diverging Trajectories (2026–2029)
The reported data covers the 2026–2029 period and projects Malian artisanal production to remain stable at around 6 tonnes per year.
Combining artisanal output with expected industrial output, Mali’s total production would reach 49.2 tonnes in 2026, a level significantly lower than the 62 tonnes projected for Côte d’Ivoire in the same year. The gap is expected to narrow by 2028, which marks the peak of Malian production over the period. Industrial mines in Mali are projected to produce 57 tonnes, bringing total national output to 63 tonnes. Meanwhile, Côte d’Ivoire is expected to reach 69 tonnes.
Beyond these forecasts, these trajectories signal a potential rebalancing in the West African gold mining landscape, where Mali has historically played a dominant role. In 2025, the World Gold Council ranked Mali as Africa's 4th largest producer behind Ghana, South Africa, and Burkina Faso, while Côte d’Ivoire ranked 8th.
Data Discrepancies and The Artisanal Factor
These figures must be interpreted with caution due to significant reporting gaps. The World Gold Council estimated Mali’s 2025 output at 82.9 tonnes, far exceeding official government estimates. Furthermore, Swiss NGO SWISSAID estimates Mali's artisanal potential between 30 and 57 tonnes per year, compared to the 6 tonnes officially declared. A similar uncertainty exists in Côte d’Ivoire, where the real weight of informal and artisanal mining remains poorly documented.
Contrasting Operating Contexts
Mali’s sector has been disrupted by recent state-led regulatory reforms and disputes. Notably, the Loulo-Gounkoto mine was halted for almost all of 2025 during a dispute between operator Barrick Mining and Bamako over the implementation of the 2023 Mining Code. Although operations resumed this year, output remains reduced, expected at 362,500 ounces down from 723,000 ounces in 2024, when it was the country's top-producing site. It will nevertheless remain a key pillar alongside Fekola (B2Gold), Syama (Resolute Mining), and Sadiola (Allied Gold).
Driven by a business climate judged favorable by mining investors, WAEMU’s largest economy is seeing a surge in projects. Over the next three years, Côte d’Ivoire's production will be boosted by the successive entry of major new sites including Koné (Montage Gold), Doropo (Resolute Mining), and Assafou (Endeavour Mining).
The Bottom Line: Operational Execution and Value Capture
Beyond projections, the ultimate challenge remains operational. Producers on both sides of the border must execute projects and sustain operations amid potential exogenous shocks, such as Middle East tensions affecting energy costs.
In a climate of high global gold prices, the key metric is not just rankings, but the ability of each nation to sustainably convert gold potential into economic development. Mali illustrates this shift well: despite declining production volumes, authorities report recovering 761 billion FCFA (around 1.3 billion USD) in tax arrears from mining companies as part of their ongoing sector reforms.
