Oil, Gold and Iron Ore: Natural Resources Drive Growth Prospects in African Economies

South Sudan, Guinea and Niger are expected to record strong economic growth in 2026, with oil production and mining activity playing a significant role in their outlooks, according to the International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook.

The IMF projects South Sudan’s economy to grow by 10.5% in 2026, Guinea’s by 7.2% and Niger’s by 7%. These forecasts place the three countries among the faster-growing economies in Africa this year. 

In South Sudan, oil remains central to exports and government revenue. Economic performance is therefore closely linked to production and the country’s ability to maintain oil exports. Despite the growth forecast, the economy remains vulnerable to disruptions in production and fluctuations in global oil prices.

In Guinea, the mining sector is a major driver of economic activity. The Simandou iron ore project, which began exporting ore in late 2025, is expected to contribute to growth as mining operations and related rail and port infrastructure expand. The World Bank projects Guinea could achieve average annual growth of around 9% over the 2026–2028 period as the project scales up. 

Niger’s growth outlook is supported by oil production, agriculture, mining, investment and private consumption, according to the World Bank. The expansion of extractive industries is contributing to economic activity, although insecurity, climate shocks and financing constraints remain significant risks. 

The forecasts highlight the role natural resources can play in accelerating economic growth across the continent. However, faster growth does not automatically translate into broad improvements in living standards.

The World Bank has warned that Guinea’s mining-led expansion may generate insufficient employment unless accompanied by reforms that support local businesses, agriculture and economic diversification. Similar challenges confront resource-dependent economies, where public finances and exports can be exposed to changes in international commodity prices.

For these countries, the longer-term challenge will be to turn oil and mineral wealth into infrastructure, productive industries, jobs and reliable public services. The extent to which governments can achieve that transition will help determine whether the projected growth delivers lasting benefits for their populations.

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